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Welcome to the next evolution of Rocketball

The Rockets are taking the drastic step of removing the center position in the hope of getting back to contender status

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Robert Covington Houston Rockets

The 2020 NBA Trade Deadline has come and gone and Daryl Morey and the front office did not stand still.

The Rockets traded Clint Capela, Nene, Gerald Green and a first-round pick in a large four-team deal to acquire Robert Covington and Jordan Bell, then sent Bell to Memphis for forward Bruno Caboclo.

Why This Was Necessary

We’ve seen 50 games of the James HardenRussell Westbrook pairing and the results of the trade are in:

This is the least-efficient offense of the D’Antoni Rockets era and, with the exception of the “Melo Rockets”, this is the least-efficient defense of the D’Antoni Rockets era.

Not exactly the kind of impact you would expect when you give up a crucial piece/Hall of Famer, two future first-round picks and two future first-round pick swaps.

By now, it should be clear that simply plugging and playing Westbrook into the template of past Rocketball success, a model that didn’t require structural change, won’t work and is never going to work. This team as constructed was not a legitimate contender. It was obvious with every home loss. It was a good team but not a great one and it was not going to win an NBA title.

While it’s safe to say the Rockets drastically overpaid in the Westbrook trade, it doesn’t mean it’s a failure yet. One title would validate it all. The problem is that was not going to happen for the Rockets as they were — they have to make changes if they’re going to get back to the contender status they earned the past three seasons.

This trade gives them a chance.

The Rockets are taking a radical but smart approach to getting the skills of Harden and the strengths of Westbrook to mesh.

Capela was a key cog in the machine during the Chris Paul years. He was vital as a screener, pick-and-roll lob threat and rim protector. He improved a great deal as a switching defender. If defenders stayed home on the shooters, Harden or Paul would isolate, break down their man and force Clint’s defender to commit, creating alleyoop opportunities often. The Rockets were 42-3 in the 2017-18 regular season when Capela, Harden and Paul all played and Capela’s role in that can’t be overstated.

With Westbrook’s inability to shoot threes, this system broke down — or at least wasn’t as well-oiled. Teams were doubling Harden more frequently, inviting Westbrook to do something from long range. Westbrook has only one scoring play that he hits at an above-average clip — shots in the restricted area. He could thrive in space with easy lanes to the hoop, but with two non-shooters on the floor, that space was limited.

So while many fans were yelling, “Don’t blame Westbrook! He got you 35!” they weren’t understanding how this all worked. To Russ’ credit, he is playing fine by his standards and has adjusted by abandoning his ineffective three-point shot and attacking the basket, but the overall impact is still felt. Clint filled his role well for years, but the Rockets are now married to Russ and they have to make this work.

By removing Clint, Westbrook can now be the lone Rocket on the floor with limited range. Yes, you lose the lob threat and that’s big. You lose defense and rebounding and that’s even bigger. These are things the Rockets are going to have bust their ass to make up because they’re going to be undersized every night.

But they have an identity now, a method to how they play that can maximize the skillset of their two star guards when both are on the floor. That’s what’s been missing. With four shooters around Westbrook, the likes of Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis can’t just loiter around the paint. The spacing that Westbrook needs to thrive on drives should be there and if they collapse protecting the rim, he’s a terrific passer and should find the shooters.

In other words, this might just fit now.

“It just presented itself,” said Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni on making the deal. “Clint got hurt. We have Russ, who is a unique talent, and I think we need to play to his talents. I think James is comfortable either way. It does help him, I think, in the long run.”

That’s why I haven’t even discussed Covington’s skillset until now because it’s important to understand why the Rockets viewed this as the right move. Acquiring a center for this team is much easier to do than it is to find a two-way wing like Covington. This gives the Rockets a true Trevor Ariza replacement, a strong defensive wing with a 7-foot-2 wingspan that can slide to four in smallball lineups. PJ Tucker is no longer alone as the team’s defensive anchor. Covington gives you another player that could attempt to slow down a Lebron or a Kawhi.

He’s a good three-point shooter (35.8% career) but not an incredible one. In Houston’s lineup, there’s a legit reason to be optimistic that he could inch closer to 40%.

A lineup of Russ, Harden, Eric Gordon, Covington and Tucker is arguably the NBA’s most unique lineup. I expect the offensive rating to head towards being the best in the league once again. Defense? That’s the big question. Can the Rockets rebound and defend? If so, they’re a contender. If not, they’re a fun gimmick.

Caboclo is very intriguing. He’s 6-foot-9 with tremendous length, sporting a ridiculous 7-foot-6 wingspan. He’s energetic and can defend. I expect him to work his way into possibly getting some time at center, especially when Harden is running the show and Westbrook is on the bench. He has also shown the ability to hit from deep, connecting on 36.9% from three last year with the Grizzlies. That hasn’t been the case this season, but the ability is there and I think it will be a big key to working his way to minutes.

He’s dealing with a bone bruise in his knee and is still some time away from a return, but he’s an option for a four-five that D’Antoni can turn to.

Rockets Continue To Overpay

Trading Capela for Covington? I agree with this move. I feel it improves the Rockets today and gives them a chance that they didn’t have before the deal. But tossing in yet another first-round pick for the opportunity to unload Nene’s and Green’s expiring contracts? Really?

It should absolutely alarm you the degree to which Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has given away valuable pieces to get what he wants. The Rockets have created FIVE first-round draft pick debts (three first-rounders and two first-round swaps) that extend out the next six and a half years, not to mention cleaning out the entire cupboard of second-round picks. The Rockets right now are basically that one college kid that opens and maxes out as many credit cards as the system will allow and likes the idea of making the minimum payment each month.

Wouldn’t the Rockets have just been better off using a fraction of these future assets along with, say, Brandon Knight’s contract, to acquire Covington outright and put him alongside Paul and Capela? I mean, what do I know.

The fact that Daryl Morey’s voice, when it comes to personnel and trades, does not appear to be the loudest in the room terrifies me right now. The Rockets better win a title out of this experiment because I can assure you, there will be some lean years in the near future.

Conclusion

The Rockets are so deeply in debt that the 2020 first-round pick isn’t that big of a deal — it’s at least the one draft pick they’ve traded where they can get an accurate feel for where it will be. It’s just a shame that the Rockets couldn’t execute this trade without it, then use it to acquire another piece in a separate deal.

The team has two open roster spots and will aggressively enter the buyout market seeking a forward or center that gives them some size. Tristan Thompson would make a lot of sense, if the Cavs do pursue a buyout. They still need more help.

But the Smallball Revolution is here and the Rockets, as they did with the Threeball Revolution, are leading the charge. While everybody is laughing at Houston’s inability to match up with the size of the likes of the Lakers and Bucks, and it may prove justified, the Rockets are looking at it in a different way:

Can those teams match up with our shooting and speed?

Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

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Podcast: Steven Adams, Mikal Bridges and Trade Possibilities for the Rockets

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Houston Rockets Trade Deadline 2024

The Houston Rockets already made one deal, acquiring center Steven Adams from Memphis for a handful of second-round picks, but we still have several days left before this Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline.

Are more deals on the way?

Rumors of interest in Mikal Bridges have swirled, with the Rockets holding precious (and unprotected) first-round picks from Brooklyn. They also could use some help inside this season, which Adams can not provide. Shooting is always in demand.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Adams trade, its impact on the Rockets in 2024-25 and beyond, the Mikal Bridges rumors, the Brooklyn picks, other trade possibilities and options for Rafael Stone moving forward. Also discussed is the play of Houston’s core 6 prospects: Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Jalen Green.


CLUTCHFANS PODCAST: SPOTIFY | APPLE

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Rockets trade for center Steven Adams

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Steven Adams Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a surprise trade on Thursday, sending the contract of Victor Oladipo and three second-round picks to Memphis for center Steven Adams.

The deal came together quickly and the Rockets had a small window to get it done, hence why this trade was made with a week to go until the trade deadline.

The Price

When you consider that Memphis did this for cost savings primarily and that Adams would not play for any team in the league this season, the price seemed a little high to me. The Rockets gave up the OKC second-round pick this year, which is no big loss, but they also give up the better of Brooklyn’s or Golden State’s second-round pick this season. That’s a pretty good pick (likely in the late 30’s). They also give up the better of Houston’s or OKC’s second-round pick in 2025. If things go as planned for the Rockets, that pick should be in the 45-55 range.

But they didn’t sacrifice a first-round pick, which would have been brutal, and they were not going to use all those seconds this season. So it’s just a matter of opportunity cost — who else could they have gotten for this package?

My understanding is they (particularly Ime Udoka) are very high on Adams.

The Rockets also did this move for cap purposes as well. By moving out the Oladipo contract, which was expiring, and bringing in Adams’ deal, which is signed for $12.4M next season, the window for the Rockets to put together a trade package for a star player is extended out until the 2025 trade deadline. They continue to wait to see which players, if any, shake loose here and become available. They want flexible (see: expiring) contracts that they can combine with assets and this gives them another year to be in that position.

The Trade

It’s not often that the Rockets acquire a player I had not considered beforehand but that’s the case with Steven Adams. The Rockets sorely need a big with size that provides more traditional center strengths, making Clint Capela, Robert Williams, Nick Richards or Daniel Gafford potential candidates, but Adams was overlooked for a few reasons.

First, the 30-year old big man is out for the season after knee surgery cost him the entire 2023-24 campaign, so the Rockets won’t get any benefit from this trade this season. Secondly, Adams is not your traditional center either when it comes to rim protection.

But what Adams does do, he’s really good at and he has some of the same strengths of Brook Lopez, who the Rockets tried to sign in the offseason. Adams is quite possibly the strongest guy in the league and a legitimate 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He’s an outstanding screen-setter, something that could really benefit the likes of Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson and Jalen Green. He was also an elite rebounder last season, finishing 6th in the league in caroms at 11.5 a game despite playing just 27.0 minutes a contest.

After watching Jonas Valanciunas absolutely bully the Rockets inside on Wednesday, it should be apparent by now to everyone that this was a pretty big need.

In 2021-22, the Memphis Grizzlies finished #2 in the West at 56-26. Their top two players in Net Rating that season were Dillon Brooks (+11.0) and Adams (+8.3), key cogs in a defense that held opponents to 108.6 points per 100 possessions. They’re both now Houston Rockets.

So this adds another trusted vet to Ime Udoka’s rotation.

The question is will the 30-year old Adams return to form after the knee injury? Adams sprained the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee a year ago, which cost him the end of that season and the playoffs. He tried rehabbing it and it never got better, so surgery became the option just as this season was kicking off.

I like to think the Rockets did their due diligence on that, despite the short time it took for this deal to come together, but that’s unclear.

If he does bounce back, then Udoka has a big man he can turn to reliably in situational matchups or on nights when the younger bigs struggle. He wouldn’t be Boban or even Jock Landale in that scenario — he’s going to play, so the frontcourt depth in 2024-25 should be better. In the end, they got a starting-caliber center who will have no problems coming off the bench, and that’s what they were looking for.

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On the KPJ trade and future of the Rockets

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The Houston Rockets are back to being a professional NBA team once again.

The Rockets finally ended the Kevin Porter Jr. era on Tuesday, coughing up two second-round picks in order to unload his contract to the Oklahoma City Thunder, getting back the contract of Victor Oladipo and third-year forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. The move puts an end to a long investment and very rocky tenure with KPJ.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Porter Jr. Experiment, the price paid to move him, Houston’s potential trade options moving forward, the new culture and the current state of the Rockets young core.

ClutchFans Podcast: On Apple | Spotify

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Heavy investment in Kevin Porter Jr raises serious questions about Rockets front office

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Kevin Porter Jr. Rafael Stone

Soon-to-be-ex Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend, resulting in a fractured neck vertebra and a deep gash above her right eye after an attack at a hotel in New York. He allegedly woke her up by punching her repeatedly, strangled her and did not stop hitting her until she ran out of the hotel room screaming for help and covered in blood.

“This is a serious domestic violence case,” said assistant Manhattan district attorney Mirah Curzer.

First and foremost, I wish the victim healing. I don’t know what to say about the nightmare she went through. She and her family will forever be impacted. As for KPJ, if this is true, he doesn’t belong on the Rockets or in the NBA at all. He belongs in jail.

Secondly, this can’t be overlooked and just swept under the rug: Why did the Houston Rockets bank on and invest so heavily in this guy?

Kevin Porter Jr. being accused of crimes of this severity should not be shocking – at all. Before he even came to the Rockets, he had a long list of serious problems. He was suspended multiple times in high school. In 2019, he had a “conduct issue” significant enough that USC suspended the 5-star recruit indefinitely. He fell to the end of the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft because of his behavior liability. He was accused of punching a woman in the face in Cleveland. He also had a gun and marijuana charge later dismissed after getting into a car crash. He went into a tirade and got into a nasty confrontation with both the Cleveland coach and GM, resulting in the Cavs severing ties immediately and dumping him to the Rockets for nothing.

You could make the argument that initially giving Porter Jr. a second chance in Houston was praiseworthy, but the Rockets experienced KPJ’s anger management and immaturity issues firsthand on several occasions.

Former Rocket Austin Rivers said this week that this isn’t the first, second or even seventh issue with Porter Jr. and that Rockets “higher-ups” confided in him that they had no idea how to handle him.

“I remember talking to guys in the Houston Rockets organization, higher-ups, [and] they were having issues then,” said Rivers. “They were like, ‘We don’t know what to do with him.’ And that’s when he just got there from Cleveland!”

Porter Jr. was routinely a nightmare for Rockets coaches to deal with. On several occasions, he confronted and cussed out members of the coaching staff, saying they didn’t have the “credentials”, per source, a reference to the fact that him playing heavy minutes at point guard was a decision they did not control.

Once at a night out, Porter Jr. had a disagreement with a DJ over music choice and he snapped, smashing the DJ’s laptop to the floor. He needed to be restrained and removed. Rockets personnel and several of Porter’s teammates witnessed the incident.

Curzer also dropped a bombshell at the arraignment in saying that Porter Jr. has a history of abusing his girlfriend, who he had only been dating since early last year, his second season with the Rockets. Curzer specifically cited an incident in which KPJ allegedly rammed his car into hers.

There were dozens of maturity issues visible on the court to anyone paying attention. He refused to check out of games. He got into an argument on the bench with assistant Lionel Hollins. On numerous occasions, he would visibly shut down when he wasn’t passed the ball. I invite you to watch this video from a game against Memphis on March 20, 2022. Just listen to the Grizzlies broadcasters, particularly starting at the 1:40 mark, talk about what they are witnessing here:



Privately, people around the league would say they were baffled by the Rockets continued fascination with Porter Jr. Nobody could understand it.

That fascination starts with Rockets general manager Rafael Stone, who by every account over the last two years was the driving force behind the investment in Porter Jr. It has been no secret. Trading for him in January 2021 was seen by some with the team as his “Harden acquisition”, code for a signature move that makes an executive’s career, much in the way landing James Harden did for Daryl Morey in 2012.

For example, former Rockets head coach Stephen Silas never considered Porter Jr. to be a point guard, per sources — playing him there was a Stone mandate because the GM believed that is where his future lied.

John Wall also told us as much publicly when he explained the phone call he got from Silas about coming off the bench. He said Silas told him “This is what the GM wants,” adding again that Silas said, “Man, you don’t deserve that. You should be the starter. This is just what they want to do.” Wall was upset because he believed KPJ should have to earn the spot.

“I have a hard time finding anybody outside of the Rockets front office that believes that Kevin Porter Jr. is a starting point guard in the NBA,” said ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon in December.

There were plenty of warning signs about KPJ to the public too.

After Porter Jr. got into a heated argument in which KPJ “physically shoved” Rockets assistant coach John Lucas and quit on the team in the middle of a game against Denver in January of 2022, leaving the arena at halftime, Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix famously wrote that the Rockets should “Cut Porter Jr. Waive him. Release him. Whatever. Eat what’s left of the $1.8 million he’s owed this season and the $3.2 million he’s got next and move on.” It became a source of mockery for Porter Jr’s fans, a line they would bring up after each game he hit a few threes or handed out some assists.

In February of this year, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, one of the most connected reporters in the league, flat out warned us that he was hearing awful things about the Rockets culture and locker room. He was blunt in what the Rockets needed to do — waive Kevin Porter Jr. outright and bring in a new coach and GM.

“Just cut him. That’s it,” said Givony of Porter Jr. “And you’re sending a signal to the league that we’re going to do things differently from here on out.”

“When you talk to people around the NBA about Houston, you just don’t hear good things about their culture, about that locker room. You talk to people that are on that team, and they are like, ‘We are a mess’,” said Givony. “Do people want to work with this organization? But you can change that fairly quickly if you come in, get rid of the bad apples and you change the coaching staff, and all of a sudden, you’re Houston. It’s the third-biggest city in America. There’s a history here of you actually being good.”

Porter came to the Rockets for “free” (in exchange for a top-55 protected second-round pick, which was designed not to convey), but he proved far from it as the Rockets continued to pour investment into him. Over the last 2-3 seasons, no Rockets player got more developmental capital than Porter Jr. – not Jalen Green, not Alperen Sengun, not Jabari Smith Jr. The Fertittas paid John Wall $85+ million over two years to sit at home so the team could groom Porter Jr. to be their future point guard.

Then they doubled down. With restricted free agency on the horizon and a seemingly non-existent market for KPJ’s services, the Rockets gave Porter Jr. an extension a year sooner – a contract that was presented as a four-year, $82.5 million deal. The deal was more team-friendly than that, putting team options in it after years 1 and 3. Going from the potential disaster that was initially reported to a deal they could escape after one season felt like a “win”, but the biggest question was why they wanted him long-term at all. The unprecedented nature of a contract that size with that kind of club control clearly showed the Rockets knew there was unique and significant risk here.

After KPJ signed the extension, The Athletic’s Kelly Iko summarized the Rockets view of Porter Jr. – “As has been [their] stance for months, the Rockets have maintained the notion that Porter is a priority and is considered a huge part of their core, along with Green and Jabari Smith Jr.”

The Rockets actions to kick off the 2022-23 season showed exactly that – that he was a priority. They benched Sengun to start the season, in large part to give KPJ a “lob threat” and defender in the starting lineup. They gave him the superstar “Harden Locker”. They introduced him last in the starting lineups. They treated him as the star and empowered him to be the self-proclaimed “Head Honcho” of Clutch City.

But the extension proved unwise and foolish. Porter Jr. never even made it to the first year of it. With over $80 million on the line, he snapped again. The Rockets signed him to one of the team-friendliest deals ever and still managed to both overcommit and overpay as Stone now scrambles to attach real assets to it to get another team to take it off his books.

Is it fair to question the judgment of the Rockets front office? Absolutely and without question. Whether you look at their ability to value character, evaluate risk, scout basketball, build culture, manage assets or allocate development resources, they failed at every level here. Why didn’t they act sooner? Why did they double down? Why didn’t they hold him accountable? Why did everybody in the league see it but them?

“We value the player and the person that [Kevin Porter Jr.] is becoming and are eager to invest in him and his journey,” said Stone after rewarding him with the extension less than a year ago.

The question you have to ask yourself now is, with all they knew and witnessed about Porter Jr. both on and off the court — why were they eager at all?

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Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

The 2023 offseason is critical for the Houston Rockets and here’s what we think will happen

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Houston Rockets Stephen Silas Alperen Sengun Kevin Porter Jr

We have almost arrived to the oasis.

For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.

Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.

It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.

But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.

Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.

1. Rockets, Stephen Silas Will Part Ways

Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.

The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.

It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.

Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.

Confidence Level: 100%

2. The Kevin Porter Jr. Starting Point Guard Experiment Will End

The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.

Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.

Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.

The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.

Confidence Level: 80%

3. Alperen Şengün Will Be Shopped

You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.

Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.

There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:

   1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
   2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
   3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
   4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
   5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).

To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.

https://twitter.com/RocketsWatch/status/1627944952498950147?s=20

Confidence Level: 60%

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