By passing on Francisco Garcia's team option, the Rockets could be over the cap if they so choose

It was reported on Monday that the Rockets will decline the team option on Francisco Garcia’s contract for the 2013-14 season. Oddly, by declining that option, the Houston Rockets have increased their salary cap flexibility, but not only in the way most people realize.

By making Garcia a free agent, the Rockets will likely be OVER the salary cap this July… if they want to be.

In determining whether a team is over or under the salary cap, certain items get added to team salary, such as cap holds for unrenounced free agents and certain salary cap exceptions such as the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) and the Bi-Annual Exception (BAE).  A team can always renounce its rights to its free agents and waive those salary cap exceptions, in which case the team will open up that available cap room.

Sometimes, it is useful for a team with some (but not much) cap room to keep these cap holds and exceptions on its books and to behave like a team over the salary cap.  This way, it will be able to re-sign its free agents and will have those salary cap exceptions at its disposal.

However, if a team is so far below the salary cap that it would not reach the cap even if the cap holds and salary cap exceptions were added to team salary, then the team loses those salary cap exceptions entirely (Read more about this in Larry Coon’s CBA FAQs here)

Now, as it relates to the Rockets:

Assuming that (a) the salary cap increases to $60 million, (b) the Rockets do, in fact, decline their team option on Garcia, and (c) the Rockets trade or waive Carlos Delfino and Aaron Brooks prior to their contracts becoming guaranteed on June 30 (taking back no salary in any trades), then the Rockets will have a team salary (minus cap holds and salary cap exceptions) of about $43.503 million.

Add to that the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($5.15 million) and the Bi-Annual Exception ($2.016 million).  The Rockets also should have a small cap hold ($884,293) for Earl Boykins, who to my knowledge was never renounced as a free agent.  That brings the Rockets’ team salary up to $51.554 million.  Even if the Rockets chose to exercise the $6.4 million team option on Garcia’s contract, it would only bring their team salary up to $57.954 million.  Since this is still below the salary cap, the Rockets would lose any right to the MLE or the BAE.

However, by making Garcia a free agent, his cap hold will count as 150% of his 2012-13 salary against the cap, or $9.15 million, until he is either renounced or signed (by the Rockets or by another team).

By adding Garcia’s cap hold, the Rockets’ team salary increases to $60.704 million, which puts the Rockets over the cap and thus preserves their right to use the MLE and the BAE to sign free agents.

Of course, this is only useful to the Rockets if they elect not to use their cap room, which is expected to be plentiful (if they want it to be).  “Plan A” for the Rockets appears to be to take a run at a premier free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul, though there is no guarantee that such a plan will be successful.  While the acquisition of a superstar free agent is a distinct possibility for the Rockets, it is far from likely to happen.

So, failing attempts to nab that gem free agent, the Rockets could instead elect to make trades; to acquire players via sign-and-trade, taking back more salary than they send out (within the CBA’s salary-matching rules for teams over the salary cap); to add free agents using their salary cap exceptions; and then once much of that has been accomplished, to re-sign Garcia using full Bird rights to any contract the parties wish to agree upon.

In the end, it is far more likely that the Rockets will elect to use their cap room and that everything mentioned above will be for naught.  And declining the option on Garcia’s contract was a no-brainer regardless of these additional benefits.  It is also possible that the salary cap will increase enough next year that the Rockets cannot preserve their salary cap exceptions.

But the Rockets have nevertheless managed to position themselves uniquely in a situation in which they could either have max cap room OR the use of their salary cap exceptions.

Few teams have this level of salary cap flexibility.

Aldemir has a limited offensive game, but is a very good rebounder and defender

There is a “good chance” Furkan Aldemir will join the Rockets next season, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

The 6-foot-9 power forward out of Turkey was acquired by the Rockets in a draft day trade after being selected by the Clippers with the 53rd pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. It was originally assumed on draft night that he would come over no sooner than 2014.

Multiple people have described Aldemir’s game to me as a “mini-Omer Asik,” and that’s not just because they’re both from Turkey. Like Asik, he has a strong frame, is physical, isn’t afraid of contact and will dive all over the floor for the ball. His offensive game is severely limited with no range, but he may have better hands than Asik and can set screens on the pick-and-roll. However, his effectiveness is as both a rebounder and a defender. So while his offensive game is laughable compared to that of Donatas Motiejunas, that defense and rebounding skillset could be the key to him getting minutes more quickly on an NBA roster, especially when those minutes are controlled by Kevin McHale.

Playing for Galatasaray in Turkey, Aldemir averaged 5.2 points and 6.9 rebounds in just 16.8 minutes a game. In 12 games of Eurocup action, he played just over 13 minutes a contest, averaging 3.8 points and 4.3 rebounds a night — nearly half of those boards were offensive.

Aldemir is just 21 years old (will turn 22 in August), so there’s still some development work to do, though we’re not sure this is a player with a 35-40 minute a night ceiling. However, he could be a sneaky Chucky Hayes-like addition to a team in desperate need of rebounding and defense at the backup center spot, areas where Greg Smith was brutally exposed in Houston’s first round matchup with the Thunder.

Highlights

Here’s a good clip of Aldemir starting to set the high screen and then rolling early to the basket for a dunk. The second clip is a block of an outside shot leading to a dunk in transition.

It looks like Aldemir is a bit of a prankster as well. This was posted just yesterday by the team:

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The Rockets will participate in the Orlando Pro Summer League, but until recently they were still weighing the possibility of playing in both leagues.

Part of the reason they ruled out Vegas is due to a scheduling conflict. The Orlando League ends the same day the Vegas League begins, and due to a new playoff-style format in Vegas, it is required that teams be there from the very beginning. It was still possible, but less feasible, for Houston to do both. It also may not hurt that the “Disney” environment in Orlando likely offers fewer distractions than does Vegas. Greg Smith, for example, was sent home from Vegas in 2012 after showing up late multiple times (practice and a bus).

The main difference between the two leagues is that the Vegas Summer League is open to the ticket-buying public and runs almost twice as long. In Orlando, only basketball personnel and media are allowed in to watch. That’s a loss for Rocket fans who travel to Nevada to watch the team (RocketGirl had some great daily recaps of her experiences at last year’s games).

Other teams that are expected to participate in Orlando include the Magic, Jazz, Nets, Thunder, 76ers, Celtics, Heat, Pistons and Pacers.

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Francisco Garcia and the Houston Rockets didn't back down, beating the Thunder in OKC

After Game 3, the Houston Rockets were cooked. Toast. Absolutely done.

Today, they’re halfway to history.

No team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series, but it’s suddenly being discussed as a possibility after the 8th-seeded Rockets stunned top-seeded Oklahoma City 107-100 Wednesday night in Game 5 before a soldout crowd at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, cutting the Thunder’s series lead to 3-2.

James Harden went berzerk, hitting his first seven three-pointers en route to 31 points and 8 boards on the night, while Omer Asik made the Thunder pay for intentionally fouling him over a four minute stretch late in the fourth quarter, knocking down 8-12 free throws.

I made the drive up this morning to Oklahoma City and am thankful I did — it was en exhilarating experience to be here live. I’ve been to numerous Rocket games in my life that have been just tremendous to witness in person, but there’s something uniquely thrilling about watching your favorite team on the road in front of 18K+ fans that want to rip them to shreds. Because of that atmosphere and the do-or-die stakes, that had to be one of the best experiences I’ve ever had watching the Rockets live.

Notes

• How fortunate are we that Kevin Durant did not successfully get off and make that three at the end of Game 4, completing a sweep and setting up the “Durant is a superstar and Harden is not” narrative? James has had a rough series, but getting to Game 5 gave him the opportunity to squeeze in this gem of a performance against his former team. After going 4-25 from beyond the arc in the first four games combined, Harden hit his first seven three-pointers.

  He stepped up tonight. Big time.
  

• Kevin Martin: Scored 3 points after missing his first 9 shots from the field. Harden: 31 points, hit 7-9 from three. Not a bad trade.

• Kevin McHale called it “Hack-a-Turk”. Durant called it “Hack-a-… whatever his name is.” But the Thunder strategy to intentionally foul Asik — six straight times in the mid-to-late fourth quarter — backfired. Asik made 8-12 free throws during that stretch and an 8-point Rocket lead became a 9-point Rocket lead, with precious minutes having elapsed. (See: Asik postgame interview)

• Patrick Beverley is all-out, all the time. Gutsy, energetic, battle-tested… this guy is not playing like any rookie I know. I thought he played very well despite a chorus of boos every time he touched the ball. He logged 39 minutes, finishing with 14 points and 8 boards, and knocked down a couple of big threes. I think Jason Friedman of Rockets.com made a great point when he tweeted, “With teams like Utah, Dallas and others so desperate for a point guard all year, the Rockets signed a readily available Beverley.” There are a number of teams with lousy backup point guards (and a few starting point guards) and the Rockets scooped one up from Russia who has stepped right in to start and is playing well enough to be a podium invite after playoff games. This is a major credit to Daryl Morey and staff… and it’s worth another reminder that he’s signed for two more years at a bargain price.

• Francisco Garcia becoming the X-Factor in this matchup is probably one of the biggest surprises of any playoff series so far. Keep in mind, this is a guy who played 18 minutes combined in the first two games of the series, and most of that was garbage time in a Game 1 blowout. He was brilliant in the first half, popping off for 14 points on 4-8 from beyond the arc, and he hit the dagger three that sent the OKC faithful to the exits. Pesky defense and long range accuracy — Garcia is providing both.

• Loved the minutes from Aaron Brooks tonight… great to see him as a solid contributor once again. He did not have his stroke from beyond the arc (0-3), but he had a few nice drives and tough shots in traffic. The Rockets wanted an insurance policy for a guy who played all 82 games this year. You don’t think you need it… until you need it. It is paying dividends.

• In the first four games against the Thunder this year, the Rockets gave up 120.8 points a night on average. In their last four, the Rockets have held them to 103.0. Russell Westbrook’s injury plays a role here, but this is the primary reason Houston is back in the series.

• The locker room scene after the game was terrific. There were a lot of smiles and fist bumps — the Rockets really are confident in one another. Assistant coaches confessed that they felt strongly that these guys were going to respond, and they did. There’s no talk of a series win … only the next game.

• The Rockets shot 27.8% on the long ball in their first three games of the series — all losses. They’ve connected on 41.9% in their last two — both wins. Hitting threes is mandatory for the success of this offense. If the Rockets are knocking down triples, they are tough to beat.

• Going down the elevator after the game, a Thunder fan says to me, “That was a really painful loss, huh?” After a long pause, I realized I didn’t have the heart to explain I was a Rocket fan. “Yes. Yes it was.”

• I tip my hat to the Thunder and whatever magic they have bottled up here at this arena. It’s absolutely like a college game atmosphere — these fans get it. They are in their seats at tip off — all of them — standing and clapping in unison to the music like they were trained by some Cold War general. It’s intimidating and I can see how an opponent winning here, beyond just facing the talent of the Thunder, would be very difficult.

• “We’ve always believed,” said Chandler Parsons, who scored 10 points after his outstanding Game 4, but was 0-5 from deep. “That’s on you guys. You guys are the ones that didn’t believe.”

  Nothing’s “done” here. The Rockets are a long ways away from winning this series as they are still pretty big underdogs, but they’ve made real progress on a big stage here, and for a young team like this, that’s everything. After Game 3, there wasn’t much to build on, especially with how the series had gone for Harden and the injured Jeremy Lin. No one wanted to say it, but a sweep would have been a waste, a lost opportunity. Now we’ve got something: A superstar effort from Parsons. Another from Harden. Role players are making key contributions. There are notches on their belt now, valuable experience being gained.

  They can see it, we can see it and, more importantly, Dwight Howard and other free agents can see it. There’s a lot of fight left in the Rockets still, but it was never about this season — it’s about the future — and right now, that is being set up quite nicely.

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The outcome didn't change, but Beverley and the Rockets were a different team in Game 2

Now this was something to build on.

The Rockets didn’t leave victorious Wednesday night, falling 105-102 in Game 2, and they come back to Houston in an 0-2 hole, but for the first time in this matchup, the Rockets look like they’re ready to make it a series.

Patrick Bleepin’ Beverley

The Rockets adjusted their starters for this one, taking out Greg Smith and going with a three guard lineup of Patrick Beverley, James Harden and Jeremy Lin.

It paid off, and that’s because of Beverley.

The 6-foot-1 guard, who just four months ago was playing in Russia, got his first NBA start, and oh by the way… it was against one of the league’s elite point guards in a hostile arena in a critical playoff game. He responded with 16 points on 7-13 shooting (2-4 from deep), 12 rebounds (including 5 key offensive boards), 6 assists, 2 steals and a block.

The stats were terrific, but his impact was clearly visible when guarding Russell Westbrook (29 points on 10-26 shooting). You’re not going to stop Westbrook, but you can make it tough on him and get in his head, forcing him to try to do too much to compensate. Beverley did both. I initially thought he was playing like a poor man’s Rajon Rondo, but probably a better comparison for his impact was Clippers guard Eric Bledsoe — a quick, athletic, aggressive guard who goes hard on both ends. I think the TNT broadcaster summed it up best: “Patrick Beverley, how tough are you?!”

I can not see any way Kevin McHale goes away from heavy minutes for Beverley. His impact was the biggest difference between the Game 1 blowout and the Game 2 thriller.

Harden and Lin

James Harden finished with 36 points and he made some tough shots. He couldn’t hit from long range (1-7), but what I liked was that he was more efficient inside the arc (8-17, 47%) and feasted at the free throw line (17-20). This is the straw that stirs the drink and sets the stage for everything else.

I thought starting Beverley and letting him focus on guarding Westbrook was a good move for Lin, who needs to become an offensive weapon if the Rockets are to have any chance in the series. I think Lin played fairly well in the first half (7 points on 3-7 shooting, 3 assists, 4 boards), but he collided with Thabo Sefolosha late in the first half and suffered a muscle contusion in his right chest area and had to sit out the second half (see video).

Three-Pointers Not Falling

At this point, Houston’s early to mid-season dominance from three-point range seems a distant memory. They are hitting 32.4% from distance in their last 19 games and shooting just under 30 of them a night. If compared to season-long numbers, that would be more three-point attempts per game than any other team and at the second worst efficiency (trailing only Minnesota).

Yet, in Game 2, that lowly percentage could have been good enough to win the game. The Rockets were just 10-35 (28.6%) from distance. Simply put, the Rockets can not win this series unless Chandler Parsons (4-15 in the series), Carlos Delfino (5-17), Harden (2-13) and Lin (1-7) start connecting from downtown.

Finding The Open Man

Another big difference between the two games was that the Rockets were moving the ball around trying to find the open man. If they had knocked down a few more threes, they win this game. Period.

A really good play where you can see the Rockets’ good ball movement is with 8:00 left in the second quarter. The ball is thrown to Harden between wing and baseline and he’s immediately doubled by Greg Smith’s man. Derek Fisher leaves Lin to body up Smith and Lin is calling for the ball on the weak side because he’s wide open.

Ball movement saves the day. Harden quickly whips it to Beverley who wastes no time finding Lin. With Fisher quickly trying to recover, Lin pulls the trigger on a three on the bounce and nails it. Both the quick passing and Lin’s lack of hesitation in getting it off are things we didn’t see in Game 1. Far too often, Lin hesitates and lets the defense get set and Houston’s offense has to reboot. That didn’t happen here and it paid off.

Smith’s Struggles

Greg Smith has played a total of 31 minutes in two games in this series and the Rockets have been outscored by 49 points in that time. FORTY-NINE!

His two-minute stretch in the third quarter was disastrous as a tied game became an 11-point Rocket deficit during that stretch when he came in to play center for Omer Asik (9 points, 14 boards).

He watched Westbrook go baseline by him — fouling him on the body — and the speedy guard scored with ease. Three-point play. He miscommunicated with Aaron Brooks on a simple pass and he let it go by him out of bounds. Turnover. And with 3:55 left in the third, we probably saw the biggest demonstration of the problem.

Smith is guarding Kendrick Perkins, who runs up to the three-point line top of the key to set a screen to free Westbrook. Smith’s problem is two-fold: He comes out way too far on the wing and incorrectly reads the direction of the screen. As a result, Perkins hits Chandler Parsons hard with the pick and Westbrook sees daylight. He bursts through an open lane down the middle and cuts through for an easy deuce… and to boot, Smith fouls him by trying to swipe his shoulder from behind.

It’s not all Smith’s fault, but this is a tough one. We’ve always known the Rockets lose a lot when Asik goes out, but Smith has been especially ineffective so far in this series. It will be interesting to see if this opens the door for rookie Terrence Jones.

Little Help, Refs?

I’m not blaming the officials for the outcome here, but there were two calls in this game that really bothered me.

With 1:01 left in the fourth and the Rockets down just one, Sefolosha hit a wide open three-pointer that essentially won this game, but you can clearly see why no one is near him: Kendrick Perkins is playing tug-of-war with Chandler Parsons’ wrist, literally holding him and pulling him in to keep him from closing out on the shooter. The official is standing right there looking at the two of them (see the play).

It reminded me of the 2008 playoffs when Luis Scola was called for an offensive foul on Andrei Kirilenko just as Bobby Jackson hit a three that would have tied the game against the Jazz. That one was against the home team in the final minute and nowhere near as egregious. Perkins should have been called for an offensive foul and the final minute would have been a different game strategically.

To a lesser extent, the technical that was called on Greg Smith in the second quarter for staring down his opponent after a dunk frustrated me because of the timing. That’s a fairly standard call by the book, but it came on the tail end of a two-minute temper tantrum by Russell Westbrook where he was essentially doing the same thing multiple times.

Westbrook was furious that Beverley tried to go for a steal while he was calling timeout with under 6 minutes to go in the second quarter. The OKC guard fell down trying to spin away from it and came up hobbling on his knee while looking over at the Rocket bench. So you knew how Westbrook was going to react. With 5:22 left in the second quarter, Westbrook stares down Beverley, then violently slaps his hand away. With 5:02 left, he stares down Beverley again after scoring a fast break bucket. With 4:47 left after a foul, Westbrook walks up to the Rockets bench and talks trash. With 4:03 left, Westbrook slaps Beverley’s hand away when he tried to help him up.

No technical on any of those plays.

45 seconds later, Greg Smith grabs an offensive board, throws down a dunk on Ibaka and he flexes and stares at him. Out comes the whistle.

Again, if you want to call it, great — but keep it consistent.

Summary

I had forgotten what it was like when your team is in a tight playoff matchup late — your stomach feels like it’s in your throat. This was an intense, exciting game that showed the Rockets have come to play. The Rockets held the Thunder to 15 points fewer than they averaged against Houston in their first four matchups, and the Rockets’ impressive 21-2 run in the fourth quarter, turning a 15-point disadvantage into a 4-point lead in less than six minutes, inspires hope. I expect the Thunder to play better, but the Rockets are capable of much more as well — especially from long distance. Game 3 is going to be a dogfight.

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Jeremy Lin and the Rockets had a rough go in Game 1, but it can hopefully serve as a wake-up call

That was an old-fashioned beatdown.

The Rockets learned quickly Sunday night about playoff basketball as Russell Westbrook (19 points, 10 boards, 8 assists in 30 minutes) ran circles around the Rockets and the Thunder rolled to a 120-91 Game 1 win.

There were a number of problems for the Rockets in this one, and I want to be clear that there wasn’t a single issue that was the reason for this loss alone, so this is not a finger-pointing session. The Rockets will need to improve on 3-4 major issues if they’re going to have any chance to win even one game.

Harden and the Three-Point Shooters

I wrote about this before the series, but these two main cogs of the Houston Rocket offense struggled down the stretch of the regular season. Harden was shooting in the sub-40′s inside the arc and the Rockets’ three-point percentage in their final 17 games was one of the worst in the league.

Both trends continued in this game. Harden was 6-19 from the field (just 1-6 from the floor in the second half) and the Rockets were a pathetic 8-36 from downtown (22.2%).

Done deal. OKC can sleepwalk through the game and still come out victorious with those Rocket numbers because that’s a dagger straight in the heart of their offense the way it’s designed. Both depend on each other as Harden’s efficiency in the paint opens up opportunities for shooters, and the shooters knocking down shots forces defenders to give up the paint and close out on the arc.

If this trend doesn’t change, this series will be an easy Thunder sweep, and that’s no bold prediction. But it also showed how this roster is incomplete and badly needs a second top scoring option. The Rockets will have to become a more efficient team in halfcourt sets, or switch gears and become a top notch defensive squad. No two ways about it — you’re not likely to see success in the playoffs without one or the other (and preferably, both).

Welcome to the Playoffs, Jeremy

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Jeremy Lin was horrible. It was like he was playing the Heat out there. He was 1-7 from the field for 4 points. He wasn’t aggressive offensively (6 of his 7 shots were from 20 feet out or farther — his one make was a layup), couldn’t hit the shots he did take and couldn’t take care of the ball. While Westbrook is carving up the defense with penetration, Lin is having no success on the other end doing the same. His highest numbers were fouls (5) and turnovers (4).

“We played terrible all the way across the board,” said Lin.

As cliche as this may sound, this was only one game and it was his first ever in the playoffs. Take a look at how bad Lin was in the preseason as he was adjusting to his new role. Ditto his early days trying to co-exist with Harden. He recovered from both slow starts and improved as time went on. He doesn’t have a long time to do it, but he’s a better player than this and I think this Game 1 experience will prove more valuable to Jeremy Lin than any other Rocket.

“He’ll be better next game, I’m sure,” said McHale. “He’s a tough kid. He bounces back.”

Stretching It Out

If you’re trying to go toe-to-toe on offense, I don’t think you will find a series that calls for the Rockets to have a stretch four more than this one. OKC’s starting power forward has the length and shotblocking ability of a center and playing Greg Smith heavy minutes — a big that has a max range of about 5 feet — keeps Serge Ibaka at or near the paint. That means that not only do Lin, Harden and Parsons have to beat their man to get to the basket, but they’ll have to contend with both Perkins and Ibaka once they get to the cup.

Take a look at the play with 6:15 left in the third. Harden blows past Sefolosha, but Ibaka stays home and disrupts the play. Harden didn’t notice that Ibaka’s man, Terrence Jones, was as wide open as you can get in the corner, 19 feet from the basket. That’s on James, but it’s also a personnel issue as Jones is not much of a threat from the outside (oh, he’s a willing shooter from out there, but not an efficient one).

Unless Greg Smith starts to wreck shop down low, expect to see a lot of SmallBall in this series.

What Went Right?

Not a lot worked, but no question the biggest bright spot for Houston was the play of Patrick Beverley.

As he’s done all season, Beverley was active and disruptive. Twice he knocked the ball from Westbrook’s hands as he was flying Mach 5 to the hoop and he also picked the ball cleanly from Reggie Jackson as he was simply bringing the ball across halfcourt (see the play). Final tally for Beverley was 11 points, 4 assists, 4 boards and 2 steals. Beverley is going to play a lot in this series, but if Lin doesn’t rebound and have an offensive impact in Game 2, his minutes may touch the thirties.

Also, Chandler Parsons’ early defense on Kevin Durant was promising. He held Durant to 1-4 shooting before some suspect foul calls gave Chandler his third foul before the half was out. Durant stepped up as Parsons sat down.

Moving On

OKC won big, but it was a game they were expected to win. The Rockets did not exactly throw anything away here and they can still regroup.

“Believe it or not, I think this is good for us,” said Harden.

While I’m not sure I’d word it exactly that way, I do think this can serve as a wake-up call to this inexperienced Rockets team that the playoffs are no joke. As mentioned before the series, I’m still focused on “big picture” items more than a series victory and how the Rockets respond in Game 2 will serve as a teaching opportunity, and hopefully give Houston something to build on for their future.

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James Harden hasn't been quite the same player since the trade deadline, but he can further establish his superstar status against his old team in his first playoff series as a Houston Rocket

The bright side of the Rockets’ annual late-season collapse is that it didn’t cost them the playoffs. The Rockets will play their first postseason game in four years as they take on the Thunder in Game 1 tonight at 8:30pm Central.

Some thoughts as we near tipoff…

Harden’s Play a Concern

As the regular season came to a close Wednesday night, the Rockets should have been concerned about plenty of things. Falling from complete control of the 6th spot to the final spot in the West is up there. So is their poor play in fourth quarters.

But my biggest concern, hands down, is that James Harden has looked like a mere mortal.

There is no overstating how important Harden has been this year. The 6-foot-5 guard has been a revelation for the Rockets, the young superstar foundation they’ve been seeking for years. His outstanding play and cornerstone role in the offense is the reason the Rockets are still playing in late April.

Opposing coach after opposing coach lauded praise on Harden, raving about how complete of an offensive player he is — solid three-point shooter, elite penetrator and finisher, elite ability to get to the line, unselfish and willing passer. Make no mistake — without Harden, Houston is a lottery team, Kevin McHale doesn’t get mentioned as a Coach of the Year candidate and Daryl Morey isn’t the favorite to win the Executive of the Year award, as he should be.

But something’s amiss right now.

Harden has always been a terrific finisher, a guy hitting over half of his shots inside the arc. In 2010-11 he hit 51.4% and in 2011-12 he was knocking down an incredible 57.9%. Through the first 57 games in his first season in Houston, Harden was hitting exactly 50%.

In the final 21 games since, starting with the month of March, Harden has connected on an uncharacteristic 39.4% inside the three-point line, a drastic drop.

There are plenty of reasons this could be. Harden rolled his foot/ankle hard in Golden State just before the All-Star break and has been trying to overcome injury issues since. He also could be fatigued as his body adjusts to a much larger role, playing over 38 minutes a night. The team also has been operating without a stretch four on the roster since the trade deadline, which may or may not be creating more congestion in the lane, making it harder to Eurostep through.

But whatever the reason, Harden’s driving ability and elite-level scoring efficiency is critical to the Rockets’ offensive success. Rediscovering that is of the utmost importance.

Rockets will have to be near perfect to beat Thunder

In the three games the Rockets played against the Thunder this year, Oklahoma City averaged (I repeat, averaged) 121.0 points on 50% shooting and 41.8% from long range. This is the league’s best offense, but the Rockets didn’t come close to slowing down any of their big guns:

The one game the Rockets won, a 122-119 thriller at the Toyota Center on February 20th, was a near flawless offensive performance by the Rockets. Harden hit 14-19 for 46 points, Jeremy Lin popped off for 29 points and the Rockets connected on 45.5% from downtown.

But while we’ve discussed Harden’s slump, we haven’t touched on the Rockets’ more recent woes from beyond the arc. The Rockets thrived on the long ball for most of the year, but they hit 40% or better from three-point range just 3 times in the final 17 games. In fact, they hit just 33.4% during that stretch, a percentage that over the season would be worthy of bottom 4 in the league.

So this is definitely going to be a daunting task. I believe the Rockets have made improvements defensively since they last saw the Thunder, but enough to overcome the slippage we’ve seen from Harden and the long distance dialers?

Point Guard Battle

Jeremy Lin was wildly inconsistent this year, but he also finished strong, hitting 39.3% from downtown over his final 34 games (compared to 29.3% in the 48 games before that). To me, that shows both his improvement and his promise heading into this series as well as 2013-14.

But boy did he get the short straw in his first ever playoff series. Russell Westbrook is an athletic freak who could go for 40 on any night and put you on the wrong end of a poster while doing it (just ask Shane Battier). Lin will have his hands full.

However, I don’t expect Lin (or anyone) to shut down Westbrook, only to make him work hard on the other end. The pressure will be on Lin to step up his offensive game if the Rockets are to have a shot in this matchup, as evidenced by the fact that he had to more than double his scoring average in Houston’s lone win over the Thunder this year.

If Lin isn’t effective, expect McHale to go with a heavy dose of Patrick Beverley. Westbrook is an amazing talent, but he can be sensitive, immature and reckless. Remember his reaction to Dragic playing physical defense? Put Beverley on him, a guy who has gotten under the skin of several players in his short time in the NBA so far, and I’ll set the over/under on “Moments of Friction” between these two at 2.5.

Final Thoughts

It’s not impossible for the Rockets to pull off the mighty upset and beat the Thunder — they have played at a level this season that suggests they could give them a great series — but recent trends don’t support it. On paper, this should go no more than 5 games in favor of Oklahoma City.

A series win would be phenomenal for the Rockets (and certainly make OKC GM Sam Presti the loneliest man in the world), but there’s no shame in losing this series. The Rockets far exceeded expectations just to get here, and I do not believe the Rockets are coaching or player decisions away from a championship with this current roster. Harden is the centerpiece, but more is needed.

So my primary focus is the big picture and I’m looking for positives under playoff pressure and intensity that the Rockets can build on, such as Chandler Parsons playing strong defense on Kevin Durant, Lin’s continued effectiveness on the offensive end and/or Omer Asik controlling the paint defensively.

However, above all other goals for this series, Harden must play and lead well. As unfair as it may be, he is still being poked, prodded and tested as a superstar and his performance against his former team when the games really matter will be put under the microscope. A poor showing from the Rockets’ foundation player, coupled with his tough close to the regular season, could create a sliver of doubt about the one thing that seemed unquestionable — their future.

Harden can put that to rest starting tonight.

Prediction: Heart seeks Rockets in 6. Mind says OKC in 5. I’ll compromise at Thunder in 6.

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Parsons has not only been one of Morey's best finds, but one of the best bargains in the league

Back on December 23, I made my first formal attempt at explaining the intricacies of the NBA player contract of Chandler Parsons.  As a mere fan (and not an actual NBA insider or team executive), I based that piece on educated conclusions using the information available to me at the time.  Unfortunately, only after putting out my prior article was I made aware of additional information that greatly impacts the overall analysis of Parsons’s contract. Hence, the following is a (more informed) analysis of one of the more interesting player contracts in the NBA today.

Parsons Not Subject to Rookie Scale Salary Rules

The NBA has specific rules governing first round draft picks and the contracts they can sign, commonly referred to as rookie scale contracts.  Such contracts are four-year deals, fully guaranteed for the first two years, with team options for each of the third and fourth years (each of which must be exercised almost an entire season in advance) and a right of first refusal after that.

However, Parsons was not a first round pick.  He was selected in the second round (the 38th overall selection) of the 2011 NBA Draft.  Therefore, he is not subject to such rules.  Second round picks can be signed to contracts much like any other player.  Unlike first rounders, second rounders do not have any scale salary by which a team may exceed the salary cap to sign them.  Most second rounders receive either a one- or a two-year deal at the league minimum salary.  Such contracts are oftentimes non- or only partially guaranteed.  The only ways in which a team may sign a second round pick to anything more are for that team to have either cap room or a salary cap exception (such as the Mid-Level Exception) at its disposal.

The Contract Structure

In December 2011, the Rockets signed Parsons to a four-year, $3,629,500 contract (using a sliver of remaining salary cap room they had at the time).  Like the contracts previously given to Jermaine Taylor and Chase Budinger, Parsons agreed to bind himself to the team for four years in exchange for an increased salary in the first year ($850,000 instead of the league minimum of $473,604) and second year ($888,250 instead of the league minimum $762,195), both of which are fully guaranteed.

However, Parsons seems to have had a better agent than either Taylor or Budinger.

Whereas Taylor and Budinger agreed to give the Rockets fully non-guaranteed Years 3 and 4 (together with a team option on Year 4), Parsons and his agent negotiated for additional financial security.  By Parsons having not been waived by the Rockets before January 1, 2013, Parsons’s salary for the 2013-14 season ($926,500) became partially guaranteed for $600,000; and if Parsons is not waived by June 30, 2013, his 2013-14 salary becomes fully guaranteed.  Furthermore, if the Rockets do not waive Parsons by January 1, 2014, his salary for the 2014-15 season ($964,750) becomes partially guaranteed for $624,771 (the same percentage partial guarantee as in Year 3); and if Parsons is not waived by June 30, 2014, his 2014-15 salary becomes fully guaranteed.

The key bit of new information relating to the Parsons contract?

It also has a team option on Year 4.

This means that, despite having already guaranteed Parsons $624,771 for the 2014-15 season, the Rockets have the right to decline their team option, essentially “eat” that money, and make Parsons a restricted free agent.  If the Rockets instead exercise that team option, then when his contract expires in 2015, Parsons will be an unrestricted free agent.

What Happens Next?

1. Parsons is “stuck” on this contract until at least 2014.
The Parsons Contract was negotiated at a time when it was not certain whether he would become a legit NBA player.  At that time, this deal was quite a coup for both Parsons and his representatives.  Now, however, with Parsons playing at a very high level, the contract may seem like a long-term (financial) prison sentence.

First off, there is little incentive for the Rockets to let Parsons out of his dirt-cheap deal.  They have him locked up on a very favorable deal for this year and two more after that.  For a team trying to manage its cap situation in order to add a second (or even third) star player, giving Parsons a raise before his contract is up in 2015 might jeopardize those plans.

And even if the Rockets wanted to give Parsons a raise before 2015, there really is no feasible way to do that without risking his departure to another team (with the possible exception of a renegotiation-and-extension, discussed below).

Since only Year 4 of Parsons’s deal is a team option (as per CBA rules, contracts can only contain one option year), there is no way to make Parsons a free agent before 2014 without waiving him.  Unfortunately for the Rockets, Parsons is such a good player that there is no way he would clear waivers — other teams would be climbing over each other to get a chance to claim him off waivers.  So, unless the Rockets want to give Chandler away to another team without receiving anything in exchange, they need to simply hold onto him on his current deal.  At least through next season.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey even brings up — perhaps against his better judgment — that Parsons approached the team about restructuring his contract.  See Zach Lowe’s interview with Morey here, and skip to the 16:40 mark.

2. An extension of Parsons’s contract is not a viable alternative.
Because Parsons is a veteran on a four-year deal (other than a first round draft pick on a rookie scale contract), he is technically eligible for an extension from the Rockets in 2014.  Many fans have suggested that the Rockets give Parsons an extension in order to give him a substantial raise and keep him under contract beyond 2015.  However, the rules governing contract extensions do not make this a financially feasible option for Parsons.

Under the CBA, a player may not receive an extension giving him a raise in excess of 107.5% of his salary in the last season of the contract being extended.  For Parsons, an extension would cap his 2015-16 salary at $1,037,106.  I’m guessing that Parsons (and his agent) feels that he can do better than that on the open market.

So, go ahead and cross the contract extension route off the list of possibilities, unless . . .

3. A contract renegotiation remains a possibility but is not in the team’s best interests.
While a contract extension is not economically feasible for Parsons, there remains the possibility of a contract renegotiation with a simultaneous extension.  Only teams that are under the salary cap can renegotiate player contracts.  For instance, the Oklahoma City Thunder implemented this “renegotiate-and-extend” approach with Nick Collison in 2010 (you can read more about that deal here).  While the 2011 CBA changed the rules about these deals to limit the decrease in salary a player could accept in the first year of his extension to 40% (making Collison’s particular contract impossible to do now), the Rockets could still position themselves to keep Parsons locked up via a simultaneous renegotiation and extension.

However, this approach would seriously hamper the Rockets’ overall rebuilding strategy.

First of all, the Rockets would need to be under the cap during the 2014-15 season for this to even be possible.  That would mean that the team likely failed in its attempts to acquire a second star player between now and then.  It also means that the team did not even use its cap room during the summer of 2014 or at the February 2014 trade deadline to otherwise improve the team beyond 2014.  Unless Parsons has developed into a bona fide perenniel All-Star caliber player by that time, there is little incentive to jeopardize the team’s cap situation — and its continued pursuit of that second star player — for the sake of locking up a good (but not great) player.

Also, even with a Collison-like contract in place, Parsons would have a relatively substantial cap figure locked in on the Rockets’ roster entering the summer of 2015, when the contracts of Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik are set to come off the books and the Rockets possibly positioned to add another significant piece to the puzzle.

4. Letting Parsons hit restricted free agency is risky but may be how team does right by him.
The renegotiation-and-extension route assumes that the Rockets do, in fact, pick up their team option on Parsons.  However, if the Rockets (1) didn’t have the requisite cap room available to accomplish a renegotiate-and-extend deal, (2) felt that they could potentially lock up Parsons longer-term at a more reasonable cost through restricted free agency than if he hits unrestricted free agency in 2015 and/or (3) feared that Parsons would hold a grudge against the team if it kept him on his dirt-cheap deal for a fourth season, then they might opt to decline Parsons’s team option and allow him to hit restricted free agency in 2014.

Because Parsons would have been under the same contract with the Rockets for three seasons (2011-2014), the Rockets would have full Bird rights on Parsons and could exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to a four-year deal at any amount (up to a “James Harden-level” max contract – but four years, not five).  Presumably, this option would only be explored if the team had already used up most of its cap space to add a second star player or other significant pieces.

Making Parsons a restricted free agent would likely be a huge show of good faith on the Rockets’ part, but it would not be without great risk.  Many of us remember what happened to the Cleveland Cavaliers back in 2004.  The Cavs decided to do Carlos Boozer a solid and decline their cheap team option in order to make Boozer a restricted free agent, looking to lock him up long-term.  Unfortunately, once Boozer became a free agent, the Utah Jazz swooped in with a huge contract offer.  Boozer bolted Cleveland for greener pastures, and the Cavs were left holding the bag.

Also, from a pure numbers standpoint, it is unlikely that the Rockets could save enough money over a four-year deal with Parsons signed in 2014 — either with Houston or in an offer sheet with another team — versus one he signs as an unrestricted free agent in 2015 to justify foregoing the opportunity to keep Parsons  at his currently-scheduled $964,750 salary for 2014-15.  Remember, if the Rockets decline their team option, Parsons would still pocket $624,771 from Houston (which would count against the cap) on top of whatever he could get in free agency.

However, if the Rockets are confident that Parsons would work with them on a reasonable long-term deal without bolting as a free agent, their show of good faith may be reciprocated, to everyone’s advantage.

5. Letting Parsons hit free agency in 2015 may best help the Rockets’ cap situation.
Notwithstanding the potential benefits above of taking care of Parsons in 2014, the fact that the Rockets (even with the addition of another significant piece in the next three years) might possibly have substantial salary cap room in 2015 means that there may be much to be gained by exercising that team option, keeping Parsons on his contract for a fourth season, and letting him hit unrestricted free agency in 2015.

Because of Parsons’s miniscule 2014-15 salary, his cap hold on the Rockets’ books when he hits free agency until he is signed (either by the Rockets or another team) will be a paltry $1,833,025.

This means that the Rockets could use all of its available cap room in 2015 — except for that $1,833,025 cap hold amount — to pursue a major free agent (such as Kevin Love, who can opt out of his contract with the Minnesota Timberwolves that summer), then later exceed the salary cap to re-sign Parsons to any amount using his Bird rights.

Admittedly, this approach will involve asking Parsons and his representatives to trust in the organization to do right by Parsons once the dust settles on the team’s other summer plans.  This may be a tough task, given that the team will have already foregone the chance to do right by Parsons in 2014 by picking up its option on the fourth season.  Parsons’s agent will certainly market his client around the league to gauge his “fair value” as a free agent, so numbers would likely be discussed while other plans play out.

Conclusion

Barring a trade, the Houston Rockets and Chandler Parsons are stuck with each other under his current contract until at least 2014.  An apparent victory for the player at the time of its original execution, the contract is now one of the most team-friendly in the entire league.  The Rockets have Parsons locked up until 2015 for a mere pittance.  They also have the option to either make Parsons a restricted free agent in 2014 or keep him around for a fourth cheap year and let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2015.  Parsons’s low salary (and his cap hold in the summer of 2015) will position the Rockets nicely to continue to add significant pieces over the next several years.

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The Houston Rockets honored former Rocket Luis Scola on Wednesday with a tribute video that played after the first quarter of the Rockets game against the Phoenix Suns. This was Scola’s first return to Houston as a player since being amnestied by the Rockets this summer and picked up by Phoenix.

Here’s my recording of the video:

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Good news: Aaron Brooks is back. Better news: Trevor Ariza is not

Two years ago, the Houston Rockets traded Aaron Brooks to the Phoenix Suns for Goran Dragic.

Today, both players are right back where they started.

The Rockets have come to an agreement with Brooks and will officially sign him on Tuesday, as first reported by Yahoo! Sports Adrian Wojnarowski. The deal will reportedly include a team option for next season. The former Rocket point guard had become a free agent after completing a buyout with the Sacramento Kings on Friday.

I tweeted about this shortly after Brooks was let go by the Kings, but this move made too much sense to not happen. The Rockets are under the cap. They had interest in bringing Brooks back before the season. They need a backup point guard. They play a speed game and like to run in transition. They absolutely love to shoot the three.

Aaron Brooks fits all of that.

After his “Most Improved Player” season of 2009-10 in which he averaged 19.6 points and 5.3 assists, hitting nearly 40% from beyond the arc, Brooks’ career seemed to be in a downward spiral. The following season, a contract year for Brooks, he suffered this injury and lost his starting job to Kyle Lowry. His attitude went south (just ask Kevin Love) and he was traded to Phoenix. During the lockout he signed to play in China and couldn’t get out of his contract to return for any of the 2011-12 season.

But Brooks can still play — he’s only 28 years old and is shooting 45.9% from the field and 37.8% from distance this year. Though he saw a reduction in minutes the past 10 games or so, he has produced. As recently as December 19th against the Warriors, he scored 23 points on 9-12 shooting and was a perfect 3-3 from deep.

Few Thoughts

• This is yet another classic “buy low” move by Daryl Morey, who doesn’t even surprise me anymore. I will say though that I was mildly impressed that he appeared to make this all happen from a Blackberry between panels at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Brooks is a little over two years removed from a 20-point per game season and the Rockets are scooping him up for a song. And by the way, if the Rio Grande Valley Vipers are the Rockets’ Triple-A ballclub, that would make the Sacramento Kings their Double-A affiliate. Add Brooks to a list that includes Ron Artest, Kevin Martin and Thomas Robinson as Rocket call-ups from Sacramento.

• One thing that stuck out to me about the trade deadline of 2013 was that the Rockets didn’t make a move for the present. Last year they moved Jordan Hill for a first round pick, but balanced it out by making a win-now move for Marcus Camby. This year the Rockets traded away rotation pieces in Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris, but only got back future assets (potential of Thomas Robinson and a future second round pick). Using their cap room and signing Brooks to a deal for the remainder of the season says to me that they’re filling holes and going hard for the playoffs.

• With Patrick Beverley playing well, where does AB fit in? Good question. Minutes at the point are not going to be easy to come by and they will be earned in practice, but this is not just a matter of making everyone happy. Jeremy Lin has had multiple ankle injuries this year, and though he has not missed significant time, Brooks provides some solid insurance. Brooks can not run a very effective fast break, but he can score and shoot — James Harden is a two-guard that plays like a one and Aaron Brooks is a one that plays like a two. That balance makes him a potential good fit.

• With Brooks back in Houston and Dragic in Phoenix, the net result of that trade (and the Shane Battier deal) is now simply Donatas Motiejunas in Houston.
  

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