Omer Asik will get his wish and be playing on a new team by the end of the week

Welcome to Omer Asik Trade Week.

We are down to the final few days of Asik’s Houston Rocket career and soon he’ll be joyfully playing on a new team that starts him. But while many reports are surfacing about teams that do and don’t have interest, I don’t know if enough has been made about what Houston’s priorities are in this trade.

Here are some notes and thoughts on where I think the Rockets are headed with this.

• In much the same way that the Rockets on the court focus on three-pointers and points in the paint because they are the most efficient, highest-producing shots, the Rockets off the court focus on obtaining the most efficient contracts, and the highest values are max-deal superstars and rookie-scale contracts. In my opinion, from everything I’ve heard, they are not going to lose sight of the 2015 free agency date in which Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge will both be free agents, so I would be a bit shocked if they took back a Jeff Green or Thad Young given that both have player options for the 2015-16 season worth between $9 and $10 million each. Now the Rockets may see good value for some reason in the annual salary (though I don’t), but the price they would pay would be higher than just Asik — they would also be sacrificing future flexibility. If they acquire either player, I would expect them to be compensated in some other form as well (picks).

• The ideal trade for the Rockets would be to:
  1. Take back no contracts beyond 2015.
     
  2. Acquire a big that fits Houston’s system and can give you quality backup center minutes.
     
  3. Net draft picks that can bring in rookie-scale contracts or (more likely) be used in a future trade.
  
  Paul Millsap would be plug-and-play here at the four and is signed to a nice contract that ends in 2015, but a deal involving Spencer Hawes may hit all three points for the Rockets. Over seven feet tall, Hawes can rebound (9.0 boards) and has range, though his incredible 44.6% three-point shooting this season is a bit misleading (he’s a career 34% from distance). He can adequately fill the backup center minutes behind Dwight Howard, something they have struggled to do. Hawes’ $6.6 million salary comes off the books this season, making him valuable as an expiring contract if a new, more-interesting deal were to surface between now and February. If Philly is involved in this trade and any Sixer ends up in Houston, I feel like it will be Hawes.

• Don’t be surprised if the Rockets move Greg Smith and/or Donatas Motiejunas, especially if a big comes back.

• I have no doubts that Boston would be very interested in Omer Asik. A lineup featuring Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Asik gives new coach Brad Stevens some fantastic defensive potential in the paltry Eastern Conference, but when I scan that lineup, there isn’t much that interests me outside of Rondo, rookie Kelly Olynyk and draft picks. And while Rondo would certainly be interesting to Houston, trading him would seem to put Boston on a full rebuild path, which might not include Asik, a player best suited to help teams “win now”. Green could help the Rockets, but again that contract is a heavy price to pay.

• Boston isn’t the only team that I think would love to have Asik right now — in fact, I would rank them second behind the Charlotte Bobcats.

  It has been implied several times that the Bobcats are tired of the lottery game and are ready to start heading up. After going 21-61 last season, they’re already 10-14 this year, currently 6th (believe it or not) in the East. Bobcats coach Steve Clifford is a former Rockets assistant and a disciple of Jeff Van Gundy. Like Tom Thibodeau with the Bulls, his philosophy considers a defensive anchor to be a must. They owe their 2014 first round pick (protected 1-10 in 2014) to Chicago, so they have limited incentive to be “just mediocre” this year. They own Portland’s 2014 first rounder (protected 1-12) and Detroit’s 2014 first rounder (protected 1-8). They also have a young player in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist that the Rockets loved on draft day. MKG hasn’t been the ideal fit in Charlotte, is out until at least January with a broken hand, and may not be tailor-made for Houston’s system as far as shooting the ball. However, he’s only 20 years old and already seems to have good attack skills and defensive potential. Similar to the Thomas Robinson trade, the Rockets could see him as a good young player with upside and/or a valuable trade asset.

  There’s a lot of smoke here, which is why I rank Charlotte as my top pick for a likely Asik destination.

• I always felt Cleveland was a very good possibility, but not because of Anderson Varejao. The Cavs were disappointing and needed to win. They have assets that would be attractive to young, rebuilding teams — namely Dion Waiters, #1 pick Anthony Bennett and a future first round pick from Sacramento. That would seem to make them an ideal third team in a three-team trade, but that was before Andrew Bynum started to round into form. Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal reports that the Cavs have no interest in trading for Asik.

• I’m confident that Asik will go East, but two sleepers you have to throw out there in the West would be the surprising Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz. Utah is interesting since their new assistant general manager, Justin Zanik, is Asik’s former agent.

• The December 19th date, the deadline for teams to acquire a player and still be able to combine them in a second trade before the February trade deadline, isn’t just important for Houston. Asik could get traded to a team that also hopes to flip him. Philly, which should be focused on the 2014 Draft, comes to mind here.

• ClutchFans user linwantsout created a bit of an Internet firestorm this weekend when he recorded and posted on the board audio of Alan Hahn stating on 98.7FM in New York that after talking to some general managers, “there is a strong feeling that if the Rockets can find a taker, they will definitely move Jeremy Lin.” Blogs scraped the story and now there is speculation that Lin is on the block. It didn’t help the conspiracy theorists that Lin sat out Sunday’s game (with a legit injury, by the way) and coach Kelvin Sampson hinted he would sit out on Wednesday against the Bulls as well — the last game the Rockets will play before this self-imposed trade deadline.

  If the Rockets do move Asik for a player that expires in 2014 (such as Hawes), the Lin trade speculation will only increase since the Rockets could gain significant cap room one year early (this summer) by trading Jeremy for an expiring deal. That’s easier said than done since Lin is owed roughly $18 million more for a season and a half, though his cap number for any trade is ~$8.4M.

• Trying to peg a Daryl Morey trade is like throwing darts blindfolded. He always seems to find a player, overseas prospect or pick that no one (or very few) considered to be possible. Having said that, my hunch (and purely opinion) is that Asik will end up in Charlotte or Boston, and if Philly is involved as a third team, it will be for Hawes to join Houston and for Sam Hinkie to net picks or young players.

Daryl Morey is expected to trade disgruntled center Omer Asik over the coming week.

The Rockets continue to make progress on trading disgruntled center Omer Asik by their self-imposed deadline of next Thursday, according to new reports from Marc Stein of ESPN and David Aldridge of TNT and NBA.com.

Four names are mentioned as possibilities for the Rockets, and none are huge surprises. Stein, who says the Rockets are “on course” to deal Asik by December 19, cites league insiders in reporting that Atlanta’s Paul Millsap is Houston’s No. 1 target. However, whether the Hawks will part with Millsap “remains a mystery”, Stein writes.

Meanwhile, Aldridge broke news of Cleveland as a potential trading partner for the Rockets, labeling Anderson Varejao as a “perfect fit” next to Dwight Howard. While Varejao is not a stretch power forward, unlike most other rumored targets, he is a strong rebounder and defender who can play well out of the high post on offense.

Varejao is also capable of playing backup center behind Howard. And beyond his on-court impact, his $9+ million/year contract has a team option after this year, making him somewhat of a potential expiring deal (only $4 million is guaranteed for next season). That could make Varejao a popular asset in February for teams looking to shed a higher-salaried player and gain offseason cap space.

However, Varejao is also 31 years old and has had many injuries in recent years. While he’s been mostly healthy in 2013, Varejao played in a combined 81 games over the past three seasons.

That could be why the Rockets need more than Varejao to make a deal with the Cavaliers. Stein cites a source “close to the process” as saying Houston would not deal Asik for Varejao straight up.

“It’s believed that Houston would be seeking at least one more asset in the exchange if talks with the Cavs ever progress to a serious stage, presumably a future first-round pick,” Stein writes.

Besides Millsap and Varejao, Stein reports that Philadelphia and Milwaukee also continue to be mentioned as potential trade partners, with packages likely headlined by Thaddeus Young and Ersan Ilyasova, respectively. Like Millsap, those two have more ability to play from the outside and space the floor, characteristics that many have assumed the Rockets would target from a power forward in head coach Kevin McHale‘s three-point happy offense.

Another option could be a package centered around draft picks. According to Zach Lowe of Grantland, Houston GM Daryl Morey asked the Charlotte Bobcats for “two first-round picks and the right to swap first-round picks in a third draft” in exchange for Asik.

Whoever the ultimate target may be, the true trade window for Morey and the Rockets to strike a deal opens this Sunday, December 15. That, of course, is the date in which anyone who signed a contract this summer — such as Millsap — becomes eligible to be traded.

Meanwhile, a player must be traded before December 19 (next Thursday) in order to be eligible to be dealt again as part of a package at the February 20 trading deadline. This could be crucial if the Rockets trade Asik for a package such as a first-round pick and/or a player to match salaries, because it could give the Rockets flexibility to make another deal with those assets down the line.

That’s relevant because in February, general managers of losing teams are historically much more willing to “give up” on their current seasons and focus on offseason cap flexibility — at least relative to December. That, in turn, could open up a new wave of possibilities for Morey and the Rockets.

Stay tuned.

McHale said Omer Asik was not feeling well, but he did not look happy on the bench Thursday

So Omer Asik has requested a trade. Again.

How exactly did we arrive at this quandary? Well, you could really make an argument that both parties are right and both are wrong.

The Rockets absolutely should have signed Dwight Howard — he’s the best center in the game. On the other hand, it makes no sense to be in this spot, 10 games into the season and wasting one of the NBA’s best defensive centers by nailing him to the pine. Asik, if he has any pride, is right to be upset as he is. After all, he was one of the primary reasons the Rockets were in the playoffs last year and he’s still growing as a player. He deserves to play, but he’s taking the wrong approach by letting it impact his play on the court.

So let’s talk about what’s next. I’ll reiterate what we’ve been saying since the summer: Omer Asik is going to be traded. There’s no getting around that. His contract is up after next season and he’s not inking another deal in Houston. When Asik is traded is the question, and that’s why the timing of this trade demand is compounding the problem.

The Rockets really needed the Twin Towers lineup to work, at least to the point where it could be used consistently. It isn’t because they feel that’s the long-term solution, but because they need to be in a state where they don’t have to make a trade… until the right trade opens up. That means they need Asik satisfied and the squad winning at a decent clip so front offices around the league don’t circle the Toyota Center like vultures on a carcass.

With that experiment failing (so far), the Rockets can’t make use of a very effective player. This isn’t anything like the Jeremy Lin-Patrick Beverley debate, which is much ado about nothing. With two interchangeable guard spots and occasional three-guard lineups, there’s no reason that both Lin and Beverley can’t log 30 minutes a night. If the Rockets can’t play Dwight and Omer together, that caps Asik’s minutes to about 12 a night, tops.

So with Asik logging very few minutes, the Rockets are getting little from a prime asset. Combine that with his unhappiness and the timeline to make a move may be accelerating on Daryl Morey, yet he can’t just trade Asik for simply a useful player — this is his chief trade asset to improve this team.

Ideally, you want to get closer to the trade deadline to field your best offers and see which teams change directions. The dream was to see either Minnesota (Kevin Love) or Portland (LaMarcus Aldridge) fall short of expectations, but both of those teams have come out of the gate strong. There’s no reason to think either team will trade their best players (certainly not right now).

The Rockets need a power forward that has, at a minimum, a strong mid-range game. Without Asik, the Rockets have a backup center issue, so in a perfect world, this four would have the ability to slide over and give the Rockets minutes at the center position in smaller lineups. That’s what makes both Love and Aldridge terrific fits.

The Lakers (4-6) and Pau Gasol are interesting. Gasol is a free agent this summer and any trade would be difficult given that his salary is a beast to match ($19.3M). New Orleans (3-6) would seem to be a good fit — Ryan Anderson is a floor-spacing four with deadly three-point efficiency while Asik could hold down the paint alongside Anthony Davis. Atlanta (4-4) is another intriguing possibility as many think Al Horford is better suited at the four than five. The Hawks recently signed Paul Millsap, who might fit well here (though he can’t be traded until December 15th).

If the Rockets can’t make the kind of trade they need now, I wouldn’t be surprised if they Kyle Lowry-ed this thing, flipping Asik for an asset (first round pick) that would be more attractive to rebuilding teams for a follow-up move. Teams looking to the future are the ideal trade partners for Houston right now since they would be looking to unload win-now talent for draft considerations.

But make no mistake — Asik is going to get traded. It may be this week, this February or this summer, but his days in Houston are numbered.