Five months ago, I touted the merits of giving Chandler Parsons a long-term contract in July 2014. He’s certainly made his case for it on the floor this year, with his points, field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage, rebounds, assists and overall efficiency (PER) all rising relative to last season.
But with the trade deadline passing without a major move, it’s time to contradict myself and explain why that scenario no longer makes sense for the Rockets, who now seem likely to delay Parsons’ extension until July 2015.
With Parsons playing at a low annual salary of just over $900,000, the Rockets have room for three max or near-max salaries around him. Right now, those slots are for James Harden, Dwight Howard and a combination of Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, who between them take up $16.7 million per year in cap space.
The first two slots, of course, are ideal. But in a league that values quality over quantity, general manager Daryl Morey and the Rockets would prefer to use that remaining $16.7 million on a third “star” player, rather than divided up between two good players. Morey recently expressed his belief that the Rockets “don’t have our third-best player on a championship team yet”.
When I wrote my initial Parsons story in September, the top bullet point was “the Rockets should acquire more key players before mid-2015”. Suddenly, that no longer appears likely. Morey tried desperately to move Asik in December, but couldn’t find an acceptable deal. Respected NBA reporters including Marc Spears and Zach Lowe reported last week that the Rockets also tried to move Lin before the February 20 trade deadline, ultimately to no avail.
Will both Asik and Lin play out their contracts in Houston, which expire after the 2015 season? It remains to be seen. But after the recent failed attempts at trading each, one thing appears clear: a package involving one or both of those players does not carry enough value on the NBA marketplace to net a third “star” in return. Without that, the Rockets appear best suited to hold off on any long-term commitments for the time being – including with Parsons.
The two contract scenarios
David Weiner has done a great job breaking down the math for us. Here’s a quick rundown. The 2014 scenario, which means declining the option for 2014-15 and allowing Parsons to hit restricted free agency this summer, would give the Rockets the right to match any outside offers and likely result in a more team-friendly deal.
Meanwhile, the 2015 route would give Houston one more season of cheap labor ($964,750) from Parsons along with a miniscule July 2015 cap hold of approximately $1.8 million. The downside to this scenario, of course, is that Parsons would be an unrestricted free agent, and other teams would be more likely to offer a higher overall dollar amount.
For his part, Morey played it coy when asked in a recent Q&A with season-ticket holders.
“With Chandler, we have an interesting decision,” said Morey. “At the end of this year, we can turn down his option. People wonder why, because it’s so cheap, but then he’d be a restricted free agent. Or he can go through his fourth year and be an unrestricted free agent. There are advantages to each, so it’s something we’ll continue to talk about.
“He’s going to make a lot of money on his next contract,” Morey added. “We don’t know how much. But we’re committed to keeping him.”
We’ve long heard that 2015 free agency is important to the Rockets, with a class headlined by Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge — two power forwards with range and potential dream fits. To put it simply, if Parsons is extended this summer, signing a top free agent in 2015 is no longer an option.
The Rockets already have over $38 million in guaranteed 2015-16 salaries, just between Harden and Howard. Add in a base salary of around $9 million for Parsons and minimum cap holds ($500K each) for the remainder of the roster, and the Rockets would already have over $50 million in committed salary. To put it in perspective, the salary cap is at $58.6 million this season. Even if Asik and Lin are allowed to expire, there would not be room to make a major 2015 free agent signing if Parsons has already been extended.
To be fair, there are two ways in which the Rockets could extend Parsons this summer and eventually still acquire a third star. But upon exploring both options, it’s clear that both are unlikely.
Route 1 is 2014 free agency. The Rockets aren’t currently projected to have cap space this summer, when free agents could include LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. But it doesn’t mean Morey won’t try. If Asik and Lin were traded to a team with cap space in June or July of this year, the Rockets could come close to affording a top 2014 free agent while simultaneously pushing Parsons into restricted free agency and locking him up long-term at a cheaper rate.
That said, this plan seems improbable for two reasons. First and foremost is the “balloon payment” issue. Despite the fact that Lin and Asik would each take up just $8.3 million/year in cap space, they are due $15 million/year in 2014-15 in real dollars, all owing to the contract structure Morey used to pry them away from the Knicks and Bulls as restricted free agents in 2012. Reports earlier this season said the high 2014-15 price tags were a stumbling block for rival owners in potential deals, even when offset by smaller current salaries ($5.2 million). As such, it would seem even less likely to find homes for Lin and Asik when they lack a “cheap year” to offset the balloon payment year.
It’s worth noting that the circumstances wouldn’t be identical to Morey’s trade proposals during the season, in which the Rockets likely asked for at least some rotation value in return. After all, the team as currently constructed is a legitimate championship contender, and losing Asik and Lin for nothing but future cap space would’ve been a crippling short-term blow. Morey would seem more likely to make a “cap space” deal in the summer, when he could more immediately reap the benefits.
The problem, however, is that the timing of such a move may not make sense for the other team. If a team theoretically has the cap space for Asik or Lin, they would also likely have room to go after the LeBron/Carmelo/Bosh tier. So why would they use cap space on Asik and/or Lin before even trying for bigger fish? And if they wait until after, the value of a “cap space” trade goes away for the Rockets, since the big free agents would be off the board. It’s not impossible, as evidenced by Golden State’s salary-shedding deal with Utah last July to make room for Andre Igoudala, but the odds are long.
Route 2 would be to trade for a third star, either this summer or during next season. It’s possible that if Minnesota and Portland feel uncomfortable with their chances of keeping Love and Aldridge, they could trade them before the 2015 deadline. That would allow those teams to avoid potentially losing their franchise players for nothing, as the Lakers did with Howard last summer.
But for the Rockets to make the salary math work in a potential trade, both Asik and Lin would have to be involved. After failed attempts at trading each this season, I don’t see how Morey could be confident that an Asik/Lin-centered deal would ultimately be the preferred offer by one of those teams. In fact, one of the only plausible ways the Rockets could make a “star trade” next season would seem to be if Love or Aldridge used the Rockets’ cap room as leverage against other teams in negotiations, thus scaring away other suitors on the logic that the player is bound for Houston regardless (think back to Carmelo and the Nuggets/Knicks deal in 2011).
If Parsons is extended this summer, that option would essentially be off the table.
2015 carries minimal risk for all parties
On the surface, unrestricted free agency sounds scary. For Parsons, it means having to wait one more year to finally get his deserved payday. For the Rockets, it means exposing Parsons to the rest of the league as an unrestricted free agent and potentially having to pay a huge amount to retain him.
But when you actually go through the logistics, it makes at least some sense for all involved.
For Parsons, whatever value he loses by playing one more “cheap year” could be recouped (and perhaps even more so) by the higher market price he could command as an unrestricted free agent in July 2015. He’s also proven quite durable throughout his young career, so injury risk isn’t significant.
For the Rockets, the team in place now would mitigate any risk that Parsons would actually want to leave. Parsons is loved in Houston and is seen as the leader of a cohesive, young and contending team. If money is equal, why would he want to go elsewhere? Sure, Parsons and his agent would likely shop around the league for the best offer – before ultimately going back to Houston and giving them the opportunity to match (much like Goran Dragic’s free agency in July 2012).
But unlike when the Rockets decided to let Dragic go, they wouldn’t still be in the process of building a contender and needing to retain flexibility. Here, they already have one. So if Houston must overpay to keep Parsons, so be it. With Harden, Howard and a hypothetical third star in place, it’s not as if the Rockets would need to save that cap space. They’d already be capped out regardless.
If Les Alexander is willing to spend to keep a contender together – and by all accounts, he is – a potential “overpay” of Parsons in 2015 isn’t something the Rockets should be overly concerned with.
In fact, if the cards are played right, it could be the cherry on top of a potential Houston dynasty.
Jabari Smith steals show in Rockets preseason opener
The Rockets rookie is legit as we take a look at what else stood out in Houston’s preseason rout of the Spurs
Finally, Rocketball is back — the Rockets destroyed the San Antonio Spurs 134-96 in the preseason opener Sunday night.
Granted, the Spurs look flat out terrible (the top contender for Wembanyama?) and may finish dead last (and it showed), but there were a number of things that played out in this game that should get Houston fans excited.
But before I get into that, I want to give a huge shout out to everyone who supported RocketsWatch Sunday night. We are watching and discussing Rockets games in realtime this season and the debut was overwhelming. There were over 700+ fans watching the game with Roosh Williams and I in what might be the largest online watch party ever for a Rockets game. The live reactions from the fans were priceless!
Let’s talk about what stood out in this game:
Jabari is the real deal
Going into Sunday night’s preseason opener for the Rockets, the biggest question on the minds of fans was simple — how will #3 overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. look in his first NBA action?
The answer is good. Really good.
Jabari threw down a dunk out of the gate and then locked in on high-energy defense on the other end and right away you knew — the Christian Wood Era was over. Jabari’s impact was immediate on both ends of the floor. Smith finished with 21 points on 8-15 shooting, including a blistering 5-8 from deep, to go with eight rebounds in 24 minutes.
Jabari described himself as “a lot more loose” than he was at Summer League, when he struggled to knock down his shots.
“It was easy,” said Jabari. “My teammates made it easy for me, finding me when I was open. The rest just came from knocking down shots, running the floor, trusting the offense and trusting my teammates.”
What most impressed me was how quick of a trigger Jabari had on the catch-and-shoot. He would receive a pass out of the post or a cross-court pass in the corner and would instantly let it fly, shooting easily over his defender’s reach. This trait stood out and was very Klay Thompson-esque. In the second half, Jabari hit a pull-up triple in transition (his fourth) that was very enticing, then absolutely slayed those of us in the RocketsWatch room when he took two long strides back from the free throw line to drain another triple.
At that point, it was official — the rookie was clowning the Spurs. I can’t tell you how thrilled I am that the Rockets drafted Jabari. This man is going to fit like a glove and will be a ridiculous two-way weapon for the Rockets long term.
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) October 3, 2022
Defense. They’re actually playing it. It’s true.
I don’t need to repeat that the Rockets were dead last in defense last year, but… the Rockets were dead last in defense last year. Although, maybe I need to turn that frown upside down.
🚨 The Houston #Rockets finished with the highest defensive rating total in the league last year 👀
— Fraudeaux (@FraudeauxNBA) October 1, 2022
Sunday, however, was a different animal and you could tell immediately. The Rockets were hustling, moving quickly on rotations and closeouts.
“It’s the defense, obviously, that we’ve been concentrating on,” said Stephen Silas. “Our help was good tonight. Our multiple efforts were really good… I’m super encouraged by our intensity on the defensive end.”
Jabari was a big part of that. He made some clear mistakes, sure — I’m not going to say he was perfect — but he seemed to set the tone. Still, it’s not just Jabari — it’s clear to me the mindset of this team is in stark contrast to what we’ve seen the past two seasons. Maybe it’s the Jabari Effect or maybe Lionel Hollins is making his presence felt, but this does not look like the 2021-22 Rockets on this side of the ball.
Tari Eason is pretty much plug-and-play
I had my doubts that Tari Eason would get a ton of run in this game, but Silas played him early (note: Jae’Sean Tate sat this game out). Without having any clear plays run for him, Tari fought and scrapped for 21 points and 10 rebounds (six offensive!) in just 21 minutes. He hit 9-13 from the floor.
“My mentality never changes,” said Eason. “I’m always going to be in the right spot, get after it defensively and be one of the hardest playing dudes on the court. I think that translates at any level and I’m just going to continue to do that.”
He plays like his hair is on fire and has tremendous potential as a two-way demon. Throw him out there when things get stagnant and he’s going to make things happen.
I’ve felt that the Rockets will likely bring Tari along slowly until they figure out what the long-term solution is for guys like KJ Martin, but Operation Patience isn’t going to work if he keeps putting up lines like this. You can’t keep him to the bench or send him to the G-League.
Is Bruno Fernando the backup center?
It sure seems that way. After news broke that the Rockets had signed Fernando to a four-year, nearly $11 million deal, Bruno was the first big off the bench, subbing in for Alperen Sengun.
I’ll be honest — this really surprised me. I expected that Usman Garuba would have the clear inside track to the spot. Fernando also seemed like a good bet to be on a two-way contract, but now with this new deal, Fernando is going to be on the 15-man roster and barring a trade, someone has to be cut (Boban? Favors?) that isn’t expected to be.
But Fernando, who sources say has been terrific in camp, showed why he got that contract, finishing 3-3 from the field and was a +18 in just 11 minutes. He was very effective on rolls, capping a pair of alleyoop passes from Kevin Porter Jr. I would be lying if I said I saw this coming, but it’s a welcome development.
It’s only one preseason game, but we still can draw a lot from how Silas sees the rotation.
Bruno looking like a good bet for the backup center role was not the only surprise. KJ Martin and Daishen Nix, along with Bruno, were the first subs of the night. That indicates what we expected, that Nix is in the lead for the backup PG spot over TyTy Washington, who I would guess will run the show with the RGV Vipers early on. I like TyTy as the better bet for this spot long term, but right now the job appears to be Nix’s to lose.
But KJ is a little surprising, given he reportedly wanted out this past offseason with the Rockets slated to bring in a couple bigger prospects (Jabari and Tari) at his position.
Garrison Mathews played only five minutes. The prediction many have made that Silas would play him 15+ minutes this year is not looking so hot.
How a potential return of high schoolers to the NBA Draft impacts the Rockets
So the opportunity for high school players to jump straight to the NBA is set to return.
According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, the NBA and Players Association are “expected to agree on moving the age eligibility for the NBA Draft from 19 years old to 18, clearing the way for the return of high school players who want to make the leap to the NBA.”
According to the report, the new age limit “would go into effect as early as the 2024 NBA Draft.”
How does this impact the Houston Rockets?
It’s tough to say right now, but looking strictly at Houston’s own picks, it doesn’t help. Granted it’s a sunk cost, but the Rockets still owe first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder from the ill-fated Chris Paul-for-Russell Westbrook trade in 2019. Houston owes picks in 2024 and 2026 to OKC — both are top-four protected. They also owe a top-10-protected first-round pick swap in 2025.
The first draft that sees these new rule changes — often referred to as the “double draft” — will be loaded as both the top high schoolers and top one-and-dones will likely make themselves eligible, theoretically creating an abnormally deep and stacked draft.
The Rockets, for their part, plan to make several changes in the summer of 2023 after (hopefully) adding another top pick in the Draft and leveraging their massive cap room. That’s when they will flip the switch and making winning the top priority. They do not want to send OKC a top draft pick in 2024, but if they fall just short of the play-in or playoffs, they will still send the Thunder a very good pick if it’s the double draft.
The good news: Brooklyn. The Nets owe first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 and swaps in 2023, 2025 and 20276 to Houston — all unprotected. So for the Rockets to really benefit from the double draft, they need Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets to implode sooner rather than later.
A look at the picks the Rockets have over the next five years and ones they owe:
Even though the year for the double draft is not set, the fact that it could be as soon as 2024 could make it tougher for the Rockets to acquire a 2024 pick for Eric Gordon, even if lottery-protected. Forced to guess, I think the best the Rockets will be able to do is net a 2023 lottery-protected pick from a strong team needing a boost at the deadline. Rockets GM Rafael Stone has held out for more so we will see what happens here.
All in all, the news today is mixed for the Rockets. It likely increases the value of a pick the Rockets already gave up to OKC, but it could make a pick they own from Brooklyn more valuable to use or trade. Look for the 2023 offseason to be when the Rockets really show their hand as they hope to make enough significant changes that they are catapulted into playoff contention.
Houston Rockets Prospects Power Rankings – Volume 1
The Rockets are loaded with young prospects so let’s take a look at how they rank in order of importance to this team’s future
It’s hard to believe, but Houston Rockets training camp opens later this month and the 2022-23 NBA season is right around the corner. Like a highly-anticipated second season of a popular show, the Rockets present a surprisingly-large amount of storylines that could go in a number of directions.
The reason for that is simple: Houston, after using seven first-round picks in the last two drafts, is stocked with young talent. The upside, however, varies for each one. Here’s how I currently rank the Rocketss most valuable prospects for the future heading into camp.
12. Bruno Fernando
We don’t talk about Bruno.
I like Nix. I love what he’s doing in the G-League. I think he’s a solid point guard who is built like a tank. He has reshaped his body and clearly he’s putting in the work. He hit 30-76 (39.5%) from three in the G-League last year, which is a big improvement over his G-League Ignite season before the draft. But hitting less than 60% from the stripe for a guy who makes a living off of creating contact and getting to the line is a big issue. He’s got to make the leap from G-League dominator to Big-League contributor.
10. Usman Garuba
Garuba is capable of moving up the rankings quickly — if he’s healthy. The problem is he rarely was his rookie season, even missing Summer League in July. He’s representing Spain in EuroBasket, coming off the bench in a limited but important role. Garuba is smart and energetic, but I need his defense to shine, not just be solid. He will have every opportunity in camp to earn the backup center role. I admit I’m a little lower on him now than I was after the 2021 draft (where he was likely my favorite of the four picks, relative to position) but I still hold out hope he can be a valuable role player.
9. KJ Martin
We really don’t know what KJ Martin thinks, but we do know his father, former NBA star Kenyon Martin, wants his son out of Houston. In a way, I don’t blame him. Since the 2022 Draft, the writing is on the wall that his role could be reduced as the season goes on. Martin is a great cutter, unbelievable athlete and an improving shooter. His game is limited, however, and he will need to be playing off of great players to carve out a role as an energy athlete. Does that make him a trade candidate? Let’s see what the future holds here but my feeling is he won’t be a Rocket beyond this coming season.
My hunch is that Washington ends up playing heavy minutes in the G-League. With KPJ starting and Nix in line ahead of TyTy for the backup role, meaningful minutes early in his rookie season are likely only to be found in the Valley. But I love what TyTy brings to the table — outside of consistent rim pressure, he can do a little bit of everything and has a good feel for the game. I expect him to be the backup, if not higher, by 2023-24. If he does go to RGV, we’ll be watching those games.
7. Josh Christopher
I try not to ever let Summer League performance impact my outlook on a prospect too much, but I confess I did just that with Jaygup. I thought he played very selfishly in Vegas when focusing on setting up his teammates would have gone a long way. He’s a tough dude with a legit NBA body for his position and has a scoring mentality. However, for a guy who drew Jrue Holiday projections from Rockets GM Rafael Stone, Christopher’s defense was fairly terrible in his rookie season. He’s got to get a better understanding of how to defend in schemes off the ball. He’s young and that part is fairly normal — that should come with time.
6. Jae’Sean Tate
I’m not sure the 26-year old Tate falls under the “prospect” category, but this is only his third season in the NBA and both the front office and coaching staff love him. Tate brings intangibles and is a valuable role player on just about any team. Can he develop a consistent three-point shot? He’s 31% from distance and that’s not going to consistently draw a defense and create space out there on the floor. This is a big thing holding him back. Given that he’s undersized, he has to improve there to unlock the next step.
5. Kevin Porter Jr.
This is the single most important season of KPJ’s career. I know it’s cliché but it’s very true in this case. We already know Porter Jr. is one of the better isolation scorers in the league and is tough for any one player to stop. We also know he showed improvement off the ball last season, hitting over 48% of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. But for me, success for Scoot this season in Houston won’t hinge on his scoring ability but rather how he, as the starting point, gets the Jalens and the Jabaris and the Senguns involved and puts them in positions to succeed. With a contract extension (if not signed before the season) hanging in the balance, I can’t overstate how important this season is for him.
Sengun’s so happy and so are we watching him play. The man is an old-school human highlight reel. He might be the funnest player to watch on this team and his passing just wows you on a consistent basis. With Christian Wood gone, the starting center position is all Alperen’s. It’s up to Stephen Silas to leverage his unique skills on offense and allow him to conduct the show in a secondary role at times. My big concern with Sengun — and it’s admittedly large — continues to be his defense. It’s not a lack of will but simply a lack of athleticism and measurables that really hold him back. He needs to improve there to separate himself as a true starting center rather than an offensive spark off the bench, but the offensive upside here is really high.
3. Tari Eason
Eason checks nearly every single box for me. He’s built like Kawhi with a strong frame, huge hands and a long wingspan. There’s tremendous potential here as a defender, but he’s also a two-way player: He can create, he has shown improvement shooting the ball and he gets to the line. There’s no liability on either end of the floor, which is why I rank him this high. The only real question is his understanding of the game. If he takes to learning schemes, understanding sets on both ends and playing within the structure of an offense, the ceiling is much higher than just a role player here.
Jabari struggled making shots in Summer League and, surprise, surprise — that’s all some needed to project him as a disappointment. Let them run with that. This is a 19-year old who might end up being 6-foot-11, can shoot lights out and plays the game with a rare passion on both ends of the floor. While “The Locksmith” is earning that nickname, his defensive impact seems to be felt way beyond just a single assignment. Finding his way offensively will take time, however. I could go on and on about how high I am on Jabari — give me every share you’re selling. In my book, he and Jalen Green are the only locked-in core pieces in Houston at the present moment.
1. Jalen Green
Green already has an elite skill. His first step and electrifying athleticism will make it almost impossible for defenders to hang with him. In theory, he can get his shot off anytime he wants. If it becomes truly efficient? Look out. We could seriously be talking about a generational scorer here. Where he has to improve is, however, is everywhere else: Defense (both on and off the ball), handles, strength, physicality, playmaking. If his work ethic is the real deal, and it appeared to be in his rookie season, he will improve in those areas. Franchise cornerstone potential.
Rockets to add Willie Cauley-Stein
Rockets bring backup center into a crowded Houston roster to compete for minutes at the five
The Rockets are set to sign center Willie Cauley-Stein, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Cauley-Stein is expected to compete for the backup center minutes against the likes of Usman Garuba, Boban Marjanović and Bruno Fernando in training camp. Alperen Şengün all but has the starting center spot locked up.
A former high-lottery pick, Cauley-Stein was taken 6th overall by the perenially-dreadful Sacramento Kings in the 2015 NBA Draft. However, the seven-footer never met expectations placed on him after a strong freshman season at Kentucky. In 422 games over seven seasons, WCS is averaging 8.7 points, 5.9 boards and 0.8 blocks in 22 minutes a night.
It’s definitely not an earth-shattering move. Cauley-Stein was released by the Sixers last season in a move to create space to sign DeAndre Jordan, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But the Rockets need options that differ from the strengths/weaknesses of Sengun and WCS has potential as a rim-running big.
There is a current issue, however: The Rockets are already at the offseason maximum number of 20 players, so they will have to release someone before making the signing official. Marquese Chriss, Trey Burke and Sterling Brown all seem like potential candidates.
Interviewing Rockets legend Mario Elie
ClutchFans interviews the Rockets great as he tells stories from behind the scenes of Houston’s 1994 and 1995 championship runs
When I started ClutchFans in 1996, Mario Elie was a big reason why. His toughness and grit was a big attraction and I even wrote a regular piece called “Super Mario’s World” that jokingly pretended to be from The Junkyard Dawg’s point of view.
So it was pretty crazy to me to get the chance to be part of an interview of the Rockets legend on Thursday.
Mario joined Lachard Binkley, host of the ClutchFans Rocket Fuel podcast, and I to discuss his career, how he worked on his game overseas, his championship runs with the Rockets, where Hakeem Olajuwon stands among NBA greats, the matchup with Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls as well as his thoughts on the current Rockets — as well as several other topics.